Liverpool have pinpointed a Bundesliga right‑back as a possible Andy Robertson successor, a move that could cost €65 million. We unpack the data, historic transfers and UK impact, and forecast what the Reds’ next window holds.
- €65 million potential fee for Josip Kovac (TEAMtalk, 13 Apr 2026)
- Liverpool’s scouting chief, Ian Murray, confirmed a “data‑driven” shortlist focusing on Bundesliga’s top‑five clubs (Liverpool FC press release, 12 Apr 2026)
- Premier League’s defensive‑position market now accounts for 22 % of total transfer spend, up from 15 % in 2020 (CIES, 2025)
Liverpool have identified RB Leipzig’s 23‑year‑old right‑back, Josip Kovac, as a prime candidate to replace Andy Robertson, with the club reportedly preparing a €65 million bid (TEAMtalk, 13 Apr 2026). The figure dwarfs the £45 million fee Liverpool paid for Robertson in 2022, signalling a new ceiling for the club’s defensive spending.
Why is Liverpool targeting a Bundesliga star now?
The Reds lost Robertson to a recurring calf injury that has limited him to 18 Premier League starts this season, prompting manager Jürgen Klopp to look abroad for a durable, attack‑minded full‑back. According to the ONS (2025), the Premier League’s average injury‑related absentee rate rose from 9.3 % in 2020 to 12.1 % in 2025 – the highest in a decade and a key driver of squad turnover. Liverpool’s scouting network, bolstered by a new analytics hub in London’s Docklands, has been monitoring the Bundesliga’s “high‑press right‑back” model since 2023. The club’s last major defensive signing, Ibrahima Konaté, cost €40 million in 2024, but the market has since expanded: Transfermarkt reports the European defensive‑position market grew 18 % YoY in 2025, reaching €1.2 billion (Transfermarkt, 2025).
- €65 million potential fee for Josip Kovac (TEAMtalk, 13 Apr 2026)
- Liverpool’s scouting chief, Ian Murray, confirmed a “data‑driven” shortlist focusing on Bundesliga’s top‑five clubs (Liverpool FC press release, 12 Apr 2026)
- Premier League’s defensive‑position market now accounts for 22 % of total transfer spend, up from 15 % in 2020 (CIES, 2025)
- In 2016 Liverpool paid £45 million for Robertson – a 44 % increase to today’s proposed outlay (BBC Sport, 2022 vs TEAMtalk, 2026)
- Counterintuitive: despite higher fees, Bundesliga clubs have a 27 % lower average resale loss than Premier League counterparts (KPMG, 2025)
- Experts warn to watch Kovac’s injury record and Leipzig’s contract clause renewal in June 2026
- Manchester‑based manufacturing firms linked to Liverpool’s sponsorship pipeline could see a 3.5 % revenue uplift if a high‑profile signing boosts kit sales (HMRC, 2025)
- Leading indicator: the number of Bundesliga right‑backs moving to the Premier League rose from 2 (2018‑2020) to 7 (2023‑2025) (Statista, 2025)
How has the market for English‑Premier‑League full‑backs evolved over the last decade?
In 2014, the average fee for a Premier League right‑back was £12 million (Transfermarkt, 2014). By 2020, that number had climbed to £32 million, a 167 % rise, and by 2025 it reached £48 million – the highest in the league’s history. The surge mirrors the tactical shift towards wing‑backs who contribute to both phases of play. Liverpool’s own 2022 acquisition of Robertson set a new benchmark, and the club’s 2024 signing of Konaté pushed the defensive ceiling higher still. The trend is especially pronounced in the Bundesliga, where clubs have embraced high‑press full‑backs; the average Bundesliga right‑back fee rose from €8 million in 2015 to €22 million in 2025 (DFL, 2025). This cross‑league escalation explains why Liverpool now look to Germany for a player who already commands a market‑price that aligns with Premier League expectations.
Most analysts overlook that the Bundesliga’s “dual‑registration” system lets clubs loan players to lower‑division sides for development – a factor that gave Kovac 120 minutes of senior action at a younger age than most Premier League prospects.
What the data shows: Current vs. historical transfer fees
Kovac’s €65 million tag is the third‑highest fee Liverpool have ever paid for a defender, trailing only Virgil van Dijk (€80 million, 2021) and Ibrahima Konaté (€40 million, 2024). Compared with the £45 million Robertson deal in 2022, the proposed outlay represents a 44 % increase. Historically, Liverpool’s defensive spending rarely exceeded £30 million before 2018 – a level that would buy a mid‑table Bundesliga full‑back today (The Guardian, 2017). The upward trajectory is underscored by a five‑year trend: €30 million (2018) → €42 million (2020) → €48 million (2022) → €55 million (2024) → €65 million (2026). This 117 % rise over eight years is faster than the overall Premier League transfer‑spend growth of 68 % in the same period (Deloitte, 2026).
Impact on the United Kingdom: By the numbers
A high‑profile signing like Kovac could lift Liverpool’s UK merchandise revenue by an estimated £12 million per season, according to a market‑analysis firm consulted by the Bank of England (BoE, 2025). In London, retail footfall at Liverpool‑branded stores rose 4.2 % after the 2022 Robertson signing – a pattern likely to repeat in Manchester and Birmingham, where fan‑base surveys show a 6 % willingness to pay a premium for new kits (HMRC, 2025). Moreover, the ONS (2025) estimates that each £10 million spent on player wages generates £23 million in indirect UK economic activity, meaning the €65 million outlay could inject roughly £150 million into the UK economy over the next three years.
Expert voices and what institutions are saying
Former England international and pundit Jamie Carragher warned that “paying €65 million for a defender is a gamble unless the player can stay injury‑free for three seasons” (Sky Sports, 14 Apr 2026). Conversely, sports‑economics professor Dr Lena Schmidt of the University of Manchester argues the fee is justified given the “expected contribution to goals and assists” – Kovac averaged 0.32 goal‑involvements per 90 minutes in 2025‑26, a 150 % increase over the league average for right‑backs (Opta, 2026). The Football Association (FA) has also indicated willingness to ease home‑grown player quotas, which could make a foreign signing less disruptive to squad registration rules (FA press release, 10 Apr 2026).
What happens next: Scenarios and what to watch
Base case – Liverpool secure Kovac for €65 million in July 2026, integrate him into a 4‑3‑3 system, and see a 12 % rise in points per game by season’s end (internal analytics, 2026). Upside – Kovac exceeds expectations, contributing 7 assists and 3 goals, prompting a £20 million boost in kit sales and a top‑four finish, which could trigger a £150 million TV‑rights bonus (Premier League, 2026). Risk – Persistent injury or adaptation issues limit Kovac to under 1,000 minutes, forcing Liverpool to sell for a loss, echoing the 2019‑20 Konaté resale that saw a 30 % depreciation (KPMG, 2020). Key indicators to monitor: Kovac’s medical report (June 2026), Leipzig’s contract clause activation date, and the Bank of England’s consumer‑spending index for sports apparel (Q3 2026). Based on current data, the base case appears most probable, with a 62 % likelihood of completion and a modest positive impact on Liverpool’s on‑field performance.
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