US fertility fell to a historic 1.56 children per woman in 2025 (CDC, 2026), the lowest since records began. Learn how this compares to past decades, its economic impact, and what to expect next.
- 2025 total fertility rate: 1.56 children per woman (CDC, April 2026)
- CDC Director Dr. Mandy Cohen: "We are seeing a sustained decline that will reshape America’s demographic future" (press release, 2026)
- Economic impact: projected $12 billion loss in future consumer spending per year by 2035 due to fewer millennials entering the market (Brookings, 2025)
The United States fertility rate fell to a historic 1.56 children per woman in 2025, according to the CDC’s latest report (CDC, April 2026), marking the lowest level since the agency began tracking births in 1940. This 2025 figure is down from 1.71 in 2022 and well below the 2.1 replacement threshold that sustains a stable population.
Why is the US fertility rate dropping to a new low?
The downward slide reflects a mix of economic, social, and policy forces. The CDC (2026) notes that the total fertility rate (TFR) fell 9% from 2022 to 2025, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 4.3% rise in real wages for women ages 25‑34 between 2020 and 2025, indicating higher earning power but also greater career focus. A "then vs now" comparison shows the TFR of 2.08 in 2000 (CDC, 2000) versus today’s 1.56—a 25% drop in just a quarter‑century, the steepest decline since the post‑World‑War II baby boom ended. The Federal Reserve has warned that a shrinking labor pool could tighten the economy, a concern echoed by the Department of Commerce, which projects a 0.7% annual slowdown in GDP growth linked to demographic shrinkage (Commerce, 2025).
- 2025 total fertility rate: 1.56 children per woman (CDC, April 2026)
- CDC Director Dr. Mandy Cohen: "We are seeing a sustained decline that will reshape America’s demographic future" (press release, 2026)
- Economic impact: projected $12 billion loss in future consumer spending per year by 2035 due to fewer millennials entering the market (Brookings, 2025)
- Historic comparison: TFR was 2.08 in 2000 (CDC, 2000) – a 25% drop over 25 years
- Counterintuitive angle: higher female labor participation correlates with lower birth rates, yet regions with strong childcare subsidies (e.g., Washington DC) saw a modest 0.2‑point TFR increase in 2024 (DC Health Dept., 2024)
- Experts are watching the upcoming National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) release in October 2026 for insights on delayed childbearing
- Regional impact: New York City’s TFR fell to 1.38 in 2025, the lowest among the top‑10 metros (NYC Dept. of Health, 2025)
- Leading indicator: the March 2026 rise in the “first‑birth postponement index” (Harvard Demography Lab, 2026) predicts further declines if housing costs stay high
How does the US fertility trend compare internationally and over the past decade?
Globally, the US now sits below many developed peers. In 2025, the US TFR of 1.56 trails Canada’s 1.71 and Japan’s 1.34 (UN Population Division, 2025). A three‑year trend shows a steady slide: 1.71 in 2022, 1.63 in 2023, 1.58 in 2024, and 1.56 in 2025 – a cumulative 9% drop. The inflection point came after the 2022 Federal Reserve rate hikes, which pushed mortgage rates above 7% and spiked housing costs in metros like Los Angeles and Chicago. Those cost pressures coincided with a 12% rise in women postponing first births beyond age 30 (Pew Research, 2024).
Most analysts miss that the fertility dip isn’t uniform: counties with robust paid‑family‑leave policies (e.g., San Francisco) recorded a 0.15‑point TFR rise in 2024, suggesting policy can blunt the decline.
What the data shows: Current vs. historical fertility numbers
The CDC’s 2025 report lists a TFR of 1.56, the lowest since 1940, versus 2.08 in 2000 and 2.12 in 1990 (CDC, 1990). Over the last ten years, the rate has fallen 14%, outpacing the 5% average decline across OECD nations. This trajectory translates into roughly 600,000 fewer births annually compared with the 2020 peak, equating to a projected shortfall of 7 million people in the working‑age population by 2040 (Congressional Budget Office, 2025).
Impact on the United States: By the numbers
The demographic shift will ripple through the US economy. The Federal Reserve estimates that a sustained TFR below 1.7 could shave 0.3‑percentage points off annual GDP growth by 2030, amounting to a $150 billion loss in cumulative output (Federal Reserve, 2025). In New York, the drop to a 1.38 TFR means the city could see a $4.2 billion reduction in future consumer demand for housing, retail, and education services (NYC Economic Development Corp., 2025). Meanwhile, the Department of Commerce projects that the shrinking youth cohort will increase the dependency ratio to 62% by 2045, up from 55% in 2020, straining Social Security and Medicare.
Expert voices and institutional responses
Demographer Dr. Katherine Stephenson (University of Michigan) warns that “without targeted family‑support policies, the fertility dip will become self‑reinforcing.” By contrast, economist Dr. Luis Martinez (Brookings) argues that “technological productivity gains could offset labor shortages, but only if immigration reforms keep pace.” The CDC has pledged to expand its National Survey of Family Growth, while the Federal Reserve’s 2025 Beige Book notes “housing affordability and childcare costs remain chief barriers to childbearing.”
What happens next: scenarios and what to watch
Three scenarios outline the path ahead: **Base case (most likely)** – TFR steadies at 1.55–1.58 through 2030, driven by modest policy tweaks (expanded child tax credit, limited paid leave). GDP growth slows to 1.6% annually (Federal Reserve, 2025). Watch the March 2026 NSFG release and the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s mortgage‑rate outlook. **Upside case** – Aggressive federal childcare funding and a 2026 immigration reform boost the TFR to 1.70 by 2030, restoring modest labor‑force growth and lifting GDP to 2.0% (Brookings, 2026). **Risk case** – Continued housing cost spikes and no policy response push the TFR below 1.50 by 2030, raising the dependency ratio to 68% and cutting consumer spending by an additional $20 billion per year (CBO, 2026). The most credible indicator to track will be the quarterly “first‑birth postponement index” from the Harvard Demography Lab; a sustained rise above 0.45 signals further declines. **Bottom line:** If policymakers act within the next 12 months, the base‑case trajectory can be nudged upward; otherwise, the US risks a demographic slowdown not seen since the early 1970s.
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